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繁霜按：作者认为中国已经明显改变了对缅外交政策，偏向于得到人民支持和在民族问题上持温和立场的领导人。作者认为在登盛和敏昂来与昂山素季与图拉瑞曼这两对搭档间，中国偏向于后者。作者认为，中国对佤联军、克钦独立军、克伦民族联盟和南掸邦军都拥有影响力。作者认为，过去二十五年来中国支持军人集团政权本身就是干涉缅甸内政。以己度人，既然中国人认为美国支持蒋介石国民政府打内战是野蛮干涉中国内政，那么缅甸人认为中国支持镇压反对派和非缅民族的缅军集团政府是干涉缅甸内政就是合情理的。三十多年来，中国“精英”的思维日益脱离逻辑，越来越不愿意遵循形成概念-进行判断-进行推理的思维形式，凡事刻意模糊，几乎所有重要概念都内涵不清外延不明，糊里糊涂。什么是不干涉内政？“精英”们需要对这个概念清晰地下一个定义。
（一）
中国对缅外交关系战略已经出现明显的变化。
中国将如何改善2015年后与缅甸的外交关系置于更高的优先地位。中国先前曾邀请民主派领袖和诺贝尔和平奖得住昂山素季访问中国。更有甚者，中国显然在支持这位反对党全民盟（NLD）主席。
就在此时，一直以来非常友好地与缅甸反对派领袖往来的图拉瑞曼于4月27日同中国国家主席习近平先生在中国北京举行了会谈。这种会谈显然是一个有趣的故事。这就是为什么它将反映中国队缅甸的态度。在新华社发表的新闻图片上，可以看到中国国家主席习近平先生给了图拉瑞曼一个愉悦的微笑。电视新闻和图片显示，中国国家主席习近平先生对图拉瑞曼更好。中国隆重欢迎来访的图拉瑞曼。不，不，这完全没有必要，因为图拉瑞曼是国会议长。
习近平先生不仅是国家主席而且是执政的中国共产党的主席。同样，图拉瑞曼是联邦国会议长和执政的联邦巩固发展党主席。这两位人物承诺加强两党之间更密切的合作。
近日缅甸登盛总统和中国国家主席习近平先生在亚非峰会上举行了单独会议。他们曾于2014年6月在中国有同样的会议。但是研究带有图片的官方报道可知习近平登盛之会与习近平图拉瑞曼之会不相同。
中国似乎视缅甸为其战略伙伴和自然资源富藏国，此外缅甸还在东盟内和在南海问题上拥有可靠的联盟。中国看来渴望缅甸成为一个稳定的联合政府以避免西方大国的影响，即使缅甸民主政府执政变成一个合众联邦。为此，习近平先生给予图拉瑞曼总统似的隆重欢迎使之备受瞩目。
（二）
据说中国正在改变对长久友好的缅甸的外交政策。中国政治学家试图揭示缅甸改革进程是否会彻底完成，这一点就更值得注意。根据中国社会科学院和亚太与国际战略研究所的论文，这些作品发表在中国共产党中联部初版的《当代世界》杂志上。这本杂志的观点可从《环球时报》关于缅甸事务的评论中看出。《环球时报》突出报道中国政府的看法。
《环球时报》说昂山素季和全民盟能够影响人民，劝说中国政府由于无法回避而接近昂山素季及其反对党。中国报纸还建议中国应该促进和加强与缅甸的正常双边关系。
（三）
2015年大选日益临近，中国对缅外交战略就越值得关注。可以评价中国对待登盛总统和敏昂来总司令的方式。在老街问题上，中央军事委员会副主席范长龙对敏昂来说，缅军高层要“严格管控约束”部队，绝不能再次发生此类事件。“否则，中国军队将采取坚决果断措施，保护中国人民生命财产安全。”范说，缅方要认识到问题的严重性，严肃认真对待此事，严惩肇事者，向死伤者家属道歉并赔偿，向中方作出交待。随后，登盛总统派遣外交部长WunnaMaung Lwin进行赔偿和道歉。缅甸刚把炸弹扔进中国境内，中国喷气式战机便被派去“跟踪、监视、警告、外逼”。这是25年来中国首次在中缅边界部署部队。中国部署部队成为缅甸打击果敢反政府军的障碍。
这种局面就是中国对待登盛总统和缅军总司令敏昂来大将的态度。
（四）
除缅甸政府和政府军（陆海空军）外，中国也对四个民族武装组织拥有影响力——佤联军、克钦独立军、克伦民族联盟、掸邦复兴委员会/掸邦军。由于中国作用大，缅军不能轻易打击约2000人的果敢军。佤拥兵三万，克钦独立军兵员约万。缅军将如何对他们作战？
当前的冲突是对拥兵30万的缅军之战斗技能和军事技能的考验。这是一场有限战争。中国基于这一点来评估政治和军事事务。
（五）
中国对本区域国家的外交政策有差异。但中国希望缅甸和平稳定，这点是清晰的。在印尼会见登盛总统时，中国国家主席习近平先生聚焦于合作营造边境的和平稳定与发展。
5月初民族武装组织大会将在邦康举行。难以确切了解“中国对这次民族会议抱何观点”。但是这次大会将在中国支持的佤联军的首府举行。
中国国家主席在登盛总统公众支持见少和缅军与民族武装组织之间冲突继续进行的当口会见图拉瑞曼。中国政府似乎是要接近赢得人民支持的领导人和在民族问题上的温和派，他们不要那些好用军事行动的人（鹰派）。
图拉瑞曼曾被暗示为从前军政权向准文官政府过渡时期退役大奖丹瑞的接班人，然而却是登盛成了总统。现在也是如此。除非登盛是下届政府总统，缅军总司令敏昂来大将也被暗示为要做总统。评论家们说，在治理国家上，登盛和敏昂来大将是一对，同样，昂山素季与图拉瑞曼也是一对。从中国当前外交政策看，中国偏向于昂山素季和图拉瑞曼这对搭档。为此，美国和中国都将关注民族大会和六方会谈。
总之，在2015年后中国是否会优先考虑人民支持的和平与稳定的政府之诞生，是否会如以以前25年一样相互勾结干涉缅甸内政，这些都还存疑。
Analysis ofChinese possible diplomatic relations to Myanmar beyond2015
Writer: Wai Phyoe 十一媒体
(1)
There has been a noticeable change in China’s strategy ondiplomatic relations with Myanmar.
China has placed a higher priority on how toimprove diplomatic relations with Myanmar beyond2015.China previously invited Aung San Suu Kyi,pro-democracy leader and Noble Peace laureate, to pay a visit toChina. What is more, China has noticeably supported the chairpersonof the opposition National League for Democracy(NLD).
At such a time, Thura Shwe Mann who has been very friendlyin his dealings with the Myanmar opposition leader held a meetingwith Chinese President Mr Xi Jinping in Beijing, China on April 27.It appears that such meeting is an interesting story. This is whyit will reflect China’s attitude toward Myanmar. Chinese PresidentMr Xi Jinping giving a pleasant smile at Thura Shwe Mann can beseen in the news photo reported by Xinhua news agency. Televisednews and photos showed that Chinese President Mr Xi Jinping wasgiving a better deal for Thura Shwe Mann. China rolled out the redcarpet for visiting Thura Shwe Mann. No, no, that’s quiteunnecessary because Thura Shwe Mann is really a parliamentspeaker.
Mr Xi Jinping is not only a president but he is also achairman of ruling Chinese Communist Party. In the same way, ThuraShwe Mann is the speaker of the Union parliament as well as beingthe chairman of ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party. Bothof the figures pledged that closer cooperation would be fortifiedbetween the two ruling parties.
In recent days, President Thein Sein of Myanmar andChinese President Mr Xi Jinping held a separate meeting duringAsian African Summit. Both of them were the same occasion in Chinaduring June in 2014. But their meeting was different from that ofThura Shwe Mann by studying the official reports withphotos.
China seems to aim at regarding Myanmar asits strategic partner and a country of profitable natural resourcesin addition to its reliable ally in ASEAN and South-China Seaissues. China looks desirous of Myanmar to be a stable coalitiongovernment so as to escape from the influence of Western powerseven if Myanmar became a federal Union at a time when thedemocratic government came to power. For that reason, Mr Xi Jinpingmade Thura Shwe Mann look attractive by giving the red carpettreatment just like a president.
(2)
China is supposedly changing its diplomacy indealing with Myanmar upholding long-lasting friendship. This pointbecame more noticeable after Chinese political scientists haddisclosed if Myanmar’s reform process totally came to an end.According to the paper of the Social Science College of China andAsia-Pacific and International Art of War Research Office, thesewritings were stated in Contemporary World journal issued by thecentral foreign relations department of Chinese Communist Party.The ideas of this journal can be seen in the Global Times’s reviewsof Myanmar affairs. The Global Times spotlights the perspective ofthe Chinese government.
The Global Times warned that Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLDcould influence over the people. As regards, the Global Times urgedthe Chinese government to approach Aung San Suu Kyi and heropposition party as it was impossible to rule out them. The Chinesenewspaper, moreover, suggested that China ought to promote andstrength regular bilateral relations with Myanmar.
(3)
China’s diplomacy strategy toward Myanmar hasbecome more noticeable at a time when the 2015 general electionsget nearer. The ways China deal with President Thein Sein andCommander-in-Chief of Defence Services Senior General Min AungHlaing can be evaluated. In Laukkaing issue, Fan Changlong, vicechairman of the Central Military Commission told Min Aung Hlaing,the commander-in-chief of defence services that Myanmar militaryshould “seriously control” its troops and prevent any recurrence ofsuch an incident. “Otherwise Chinese military will take resolutemeasures to protect the safety of Chinese people and their assets”Fan was quoted saying by Xinhua. Fan said that Myanmar shouldunderstand the seriousness of the incident, launch a thoroughinvestigation and also provide compensation to the families ofvictims. Later, President Thein Sein assigned duties to foreignminister Wunna Maung Lwin to provide compensations and make anapology. No sooner had Myanmar’s bombs dropped in China border thanChinese fighter jets were sent to “track, monitor, warn and chaseaway”. It is the first time China deployed its troops atChina-Myanmar border within 25 years. Chinese troop deploymentbecame a barrier to Myanmar in fighting against Kokangrebels.
Such situations are Chinese government’s attitudes towardsPresident Thein Sein and Military Chief Senior General Min AungHlaing.
(4)
In addition to the government and Tatmadaw (army, navy andair forces), China has an influence on four armed ethnicgroups—United Wa State Army (UWSA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA),Karen National Union (KNU) , Restoration Council of Shan State/ShanState Army (RCSS/SSA). Myanmar army could not easily fight about2,000 Kokang troops as Chinese role is large. Wa has a force ofabout 30,000 troops and KIA, about 10,000 troops. How will Myanmarmilitary fight them?
The current clashes are showing a test for fighting skilland military skill of Myanma Tatmadaw whose possesses more than300,000 soldiers. It is also a limited battle. Based on this point,China assessed political and military affairs.
(5)
China’s diplomacy is different among regionalcountries. But China wants Myanmar to be peaceful and stable andthis point is clear. During the meeting with President Thein Seinin Indonesia, Chinese President Mr Xi Jinping focused oncooperation in building peace and stability of the border anddevelopments.
The conference of armed ethnic groups will be held inPanghsan early May. It is not easy to exactly know about ‘how willChina have the opinion on the ethnic conference’. But theconference will be held at the headquarters of the UWSA which isbacked by China.
The Chinese President met with Thura Shwe Mann at a timewhen President Thein Sein sees less support from the public, andthe clashes between Myanmar army and armed ethnic groups go on.Chinese government seems to approach the leader winning the supportof the people and the soft liners in ethnic issues, but they don’twant those preferring to use military action (hawkish).
Thura Shwe Mann was tipped for the successor to retiredSenior General Than Shwe in the transition from the previousmilitary regime to the quasi-civilian government, but Thein Seinbecame the president. Now is also the same matter. Unless TheinSein is the president in the next government, Military Chief SeniorGeneral Min Aung Hlaing is tipped as the president. The criticssaid that Thein Sein and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is onepair, similarly, Aung San Suu Kyi and Thura Shwe Mann is one pairto govern the country. When reviewing the current diplomacy ofChina, China prefers the duo of Aung San Suu Kyi and Thura ShweMann. For that reason, the US and China will have to keep an eye onthe ethnic conference and the six-party talk.
Anyhow, it is questionable whether China will givepriority to the emergence of the peaceful and stable governmentbacked by the people beyond 2015 and whether it will interfere inMyanmar’s internal affairs just like hand in glove with Myanmarduring the previous 25 years.
